The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) quota for November 2014 to January 2015 will be 11,932. Details of the quota for each vehicle category are in Annex A. Bidding under this quota will start with the first COE bidding exercise in November 2014.
- The COE quota consists of the following components:
- Provision for 0.5% per annum vehicle growth based on the vehicle population as at 31 December 2013;
- Replacement COEs for vehicles deregistered in the preceding three-month period of July to September 2014;
- Adjustments for changes in the taxi population, expired COEs, and over-projection of vehicle deregistrations in 2008/2009.
- The next quota announcement for the bidding period of February to April 2015 will be made in January 2015.
More New Category (CAT) C Vehicles Registered without COE Bidding, under the Early Turnover Scheme (ETS)
- The number of replacements under the ETS has increased significantly since the enhancement of the ETS in March 2014. Table 1 shows that, while the total number of deregistrations has not increased significantly, the replacements under the ETS have more than tripled, from about 20% before the enhancement to 70% in the third quarter of 2014.
- This means that more CAT C COEs are being made available directly in the market, rather than through the bidding system. While this leaves fewer CAT C COEs available for bidding, it also means that potential buyers can obtain new vehicles coupled with a ready COE, without needing to bid for a new COE through the open bidding system.
- Thus, the CAT C quotas for the quota period from November 2014 to January 2015 are also substantially lower. It is not, however, indicative of the total number of new vehicles that may be purchased and registered in that quarter, as many more COEs may be made available through direct registrations under the ETS. Nonetheless, COE quotas for bidding may be higher in subsequent quarters as deregistrations increase, based on the age profile of the existing CAT C vehicle population.
Table 1: CAT C quarterly deregistrations and replacements under the ETS in 2014
Quota Periods in 2014
Deregistrations from previous quarter
Replacements under ETS (as a percentage of deregistrations)
Looking Ahead: Ensuring the Sustainability of Singapore’s Transport System
- With 12 per cent of Singapore’s total land area already taken up by roads, there is limited scope for any further expansion of the road network. Priority for road growth will be given to serve new development areas and to facilitate bus movements to bring about a better public transport experience. The latter supports ongoing efforts to improve the quality and connectivity of our public transport network, which is set to undergo significant expansion over the next few years. Therefore, it is not tenable to keep to the same rates of vehicle population growth as before. Already, the number of vehicles on our roads is drawing near to one million.
- In view of this, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) will lower the vehicle growth rate. From February 2015 to January 2018, the annual vehicle growth rate will be lowered from the current 0.5% to 0.25%. This will be reviewed again in 2017.
- The lower vehicle growth rate is not expected to substantially impact the COE supply as this is determined mainly by the number of vehicle deregistrations. This is especially so in view of the generally rising trend of deregistrations in the coming years, as the COEs of many old vehicles expire.
Reduced Rate of Contribution to Category E
- To maintain a more stable supply of COEs in each COE category under a lower vehicle growth rate, the contribution rate to CAT E will also be reduced from the current 15% to 10% from February 2015 onwards.
- Currently, 15% of COEs from deregistered vehicles in each vehicle category, CAT A to D, form the COE quota for the Open Category (CAT E). CAT E COEs can be used to register vehicles from any COE category. This provides structural flexibility for the vehicle mix to evolve over time according to market demand.
- This reduction will return more COEs from deregistered vehicles to their respective categories. The immediate effect on quotas available for each vehicle category is expected to outweigh the reduction in vehicle growth rate.