Bus Arrival Information Achieves 95% Accuracy

News Releases 16 Jul 2015 mytransport.sg bus arrival information

1. The Land Transport Authority (LTA) launched the enhanced bus arrival timing on 15 April 2015 to provide commuters with a single common source of bus arrival timing information, regardless of the bus operators. Since the system’s launch, LTA has monitored public feedback to fine-tune the system and provide higher quality data. Through fine-tuning over the past 10 weeks since launch, the system has seen further improvements in the accuracy of bus arrival time estimations, with 95% of the estimations falling within three minutes of the actual bus arrival time.

2. The new bus arrival timing is extensively used by commuters today, evident in significantly increased downloads and popularity among commuters of both the MyTransport.SG application and third-party apps using bus arrival timing data from LTA’s data sharing platform, DataMall. Prior to the system’s launch, the DataMall received roughly 4 million download requests a month. Today, it receives about 10 million download requests for bus arrival timing data daily.

How the system works

3. The system uses location data provided by a global positioning device mounted inside each of the 4700 buses. This data is transmitted wirelessly to LTA’s system which then predicts the bus arrival time based on real-time bus location data, bus route information, bus schedules and historical travel times.

Measures implemented to enhance accuracy

4. The accuracy of bus arrival predictions is dependent on many factors, such as traffic conditions, GPS signal strengths, traffic incidents, route diversions and unanticipated demand conditions that can affect bus operations.

5. Over the 2-month run in period of the system, public feedback from commuters helped us ascertain bus service routes and locations that were more prone to conditions affecting accuracy. This feedback, correlated with the over 50 million data points collected daily, led to further refinements such as software prediction algorithms which improved overall system-wide accuracy. Today, the bus arrival timing has stabilised with 95% of the estimations falling within three minutes of the actual bus arrival time, which is comparable or even better than other bus arrival timing systems.

6. With LTA’s Common Bus Fleet Management system that will be implemented in mid-2016, scheduled bus data presently provided by bus operators, will be centrally managed by the system. This will result in more consistent and higher quality bus data, translating to even better accuracy.  

7. Please refer to the Annex for more information on LTA’s MyTransport.SG App.

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